Report foresees warmer Maine

By JOHN RICHARDSON, Staff Writer
Portland Press Herald
Thursday, October 5, 2006

Maine will feel like a different place in 50 or 100 years, with longer and hotter summers, more frequent droughts, and milder winters with much rain and little snow, according to a report issued Wednesday by a national group of scientists.

But whether Maine's climate will feel more like Connecticut's or Delaware's at the end of this century will depend on what individuals, corporations and governments do to reduce emissions of heat-trapping gases into the atmosphere, the scientists said.
Cutting back now on the use of fossil fuel could help forestall the most dramatic changes facing Maine and the Northeast, according to the report.

"If we stick to fossil fuel use the way we've been doing, the Northeast is going to feel a lot more like the American South by the end of the century," said Katherine Hayhoe, a research associate professor of geosciences at Texas Tech University and a lead author of the report.

Hayhoe was part of a team of 19 scientists, most from U.S. universities, who used global climate models to predict the future climate in the Northeast. The report outlines the likely effects of global warming, a phenomenon that scientists say is being accelerated by fossil fuel combustion and the release of carbon dioxide and other pollutants that trap heat around the earth.
The Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment, as the project is called, was sponsored and coordinated by the Union of Concerned Scientists, a Cambridge, Mass.-based advocacy group for policies to slow global warming.

The authors of the report said some changes projected by the climate models are unavoidable and already have begun in the Northeast.
"The character of New England is really beginning to change," said Cameron Wake, a lead author and associate professor at the University of New Hampshire's Climate Change Research Center.

Depending on the rate of change, global warming is expected to force shifts in the environment and the economy of the region, as well as the lifestyles of its inhabitants. The mild summers and the snow-covered mountains and forests that draw residents and tourists here are both at risk, the scientists said.

There will be potentially good news for some, such as earlier springs and longer summer growing seasons for farmers. But the higher summer temperatures also will bring more droughts, the scientists said.

The report presents two scenarios, one based on continued fossil fuel use at the current rate and one based on reduced emissions and a gradual transition to other energy sources worldwide over the next 50 years.

"By the end of the century, the summer in Maine in general would feel like Connecticut if we follow the lower-emissions pathway, and it would feel a lot like Delaware if we follow the higher pathway," Hayhoe said.

If emissions continue at the current rates, the report says, Maine's average summer temperatures will rise between 6.5 degrees and 13.5 degrees by 2100. Average winter temperatures would rise between 10 and 13 degrees. The ranges represent the margins of uncertainty based on three independent climate models used for the study.

The report also says that higher emissions mean:

More summer days will exceed 90 or 100 degrees. The number of 90-degree days in Boston, for example, would increase from 10 to 60 per year.

The winter snowpack in the region would shrink by 50 percent, retreating to the north and west and leaving southern and coastal Maine with bare ground for much of the winter.

Maine's climate will change less dramatically if fossil fuel emissions can be virtually phased out over 50 years starting now, according to the report. That would require a 3 percent annual reduction in consumption by industrial nations of oil and coal, which are used primarily for making electricity and fueling transportation.

Under that scenario, the report says, average Maine summer temperatures would increase 5.5 degrees to 7.5 degrees in this century, while winter temperatures would go up an average of 3.5 to 6.5 degrees.

There would still be droughts and 90-degree days, as well as a retreat of the snowpack. But those changes would occur at about half the rate.

Authors of the report said the models did not take into account the possibility of abrupt changes in the world's climate system, which could accelerate the changes. But they said the report shows that actions by individuals and governments can slow the pace of climate change and protect some of the character of the Northeast.

A group representing the electric utility industry, Edison Electric Institute, did not dispute the science behind the report but said there is still debate about how to reduce emissions and how fast it can be done.

Regulations to phase out coal use, for example, would encourage more natural gas use, which would raise costs throughout the economy and cause other disruptions, said spokesman Dan Riedinger.

"There are some very significant gains to be made throughout the power sectors and other sectors based on increased efficiencies," Riedinger said. "There is general agreement though that the medium- and long-term solution is going to involve new technology."

Along with exploring alternative energy, researchers are working on ways to capture and bury carbon dioxide before it gets into the atmosphere. But, Riedinger said, "commercial availability of the technology is probably 15 to 20 years away."

Staff Writer John Richardson can be contacted at 791-6324 or at:
jrichardson@pressherald.com