From Iran to Chad It's Bad.. No, Really Bad.

From Iran to Chad It's Bad.. No, Really Bad.: "Source: ResourceInvestor.com
[Apr 15, 2006]

SYNOPSIS: If the markets could behave like a rational entity we would already be at $80 oil, no problem.

PARIS -- If the markets could behave like a rational entity we would already be at $80 oil, no problem. Of course we know markets do not behave rationally, instead they have a kind of menopausal myopia. Fixated on one topic one minute, hysterical about another the next.

Thus they have ignored a welter of events that theoretically should have pushed price way over $69. First, it appears very likely that one insane African leader, Obusanjo of Nigeria, is going after a third term in office. His front companies have not quite looted enough of the country's oil wealth for his manic greed, so another four years should set his family up nicely for the next 150 years or so. That is if he is able to pull it off.

The very fact that he is prepared to take this step does not bode well for the oil industry. Nigeria is getting close to a basket case, witness the emails sent by the Delta militias last week saying any Shell teams going back to the attacked platforms 'would be executed.' The Militia's sent the emails because they were watching events, most likely on CNBC, at the Seventh International Oil Summit in Paris. There a Shell [NYSE"