Feeling the Effects of Global Warming?

Source: Miami Herald
May 25, 2006

SYNOPSIS: Greenland's disintegration could become irreversible by mid-century, which would eventually raise sea levels 20 feet. That would inundate one quarter of Florida.

As the 2006 hurricane season begins, three questions hang over Florida.

• Were the 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons just part of a natural cycle, or have we entered a new period of global-warming-enhanced hurricane seasons?

• As global warming leads to ever-rising sea levels, how will that affect low-lying South Florida?

• What can the state do to help avert the worst climate change impacts?

Since the 1970s, the number of intense Category 4 and 5 Atlantic hurricanes has nearly doubled. Hurricanes are heat engines that draw their power from the warm, moist water beneath them. The warmer the water, the more intense the hurricane. Statistical analysis reveals the major cause of the increase in hurricane intensity is rising sea surface temperatures.

Since the 1970s, the Atlantic's hurricane-forming region has warmed nearly 1 degree Fahrenheit. Recent research attributes nearly all that warming to increasing emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases from human activity.

As the sea surface temperature increases, we are also seeing longer hurricane seasons. In 2005, Emily became the only known Category 5 Atlantic hurricane to form in July. Zeta was the longest-lived January tropical cyclone on record.

A fraction of the recent warming may be due to natural cycles, but on our current emissions trend, the Atlantic will warm another 2 degrees Fahrenheit by mid-century, and more than double that by 2100. If we don't act fast, global warming will utterly overwhelm the natural cycles. The moderate hurricane seasons of the 1960s and 1970s are a thing of the past. Four or more Atlantic super-hurricanes -- Category 4 or stronger -- a year is likely to be the norm by 2025.

The devastation of Katrina showed what havoc a super-hurricane can wreak when it hits a city that's largely below sea level. Just a few years ago, scientists projected a mean sea level rise of 20 inches, with little or no contribution from the huge ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica.

Today we know the ice sheets are melting much faster than predicted. Both Greenland and Antarctica are already contributing to rising seas. Greenland's disintegration could become irreversible by mid-century, which would eventually raise sea levels 20 feet. That would inundate one quarter of Florida.

How can Florida protect itself from such sea level rise and a constant barrage of hurricane seasons such as 2004 and 2005? While there are engineering solutions for coastal regions below sea level, the best hope is to minimize future sea level rise by acting now to avoid catastrophic warming.

America is responsible for 25 percent of greenhouse gas emissions from burning coal, oil and gas. Absent federal leadership, the states must act. While Florida will suffer terribly from global warming, it is doing little to slow emissions growth. State electricity demand is projected to grow by one third over the next decade, with much of that demand met by highly polluting coal power.

Demand growth comes largely from new homes. Yet the Florida Solar Energy Center has shown that simple cost-effective changes can reduce residential demand 40 percent, avoiding the need for countless new power plants.

In recent weeks, the Florida Legislature took a good first step by passing legislation to establish an Energy Commission and develop a comprehensive state climate plan with greenhouse gas reductions.

The new commission should learn from the experience of the country's best -- the California Energy Commission. Over the past three decades, while Florida's electricity per capita has risen nearly 50 percent, California's strong efficiency efforts have kept per capita demand flat. And California's efficiency investments cost 2.9 cents per kilowatt hour -- far cheaper than new power plants.

Reduce addiction to oil

Finally, 11 states have embraced tailpipe emissions standards aimed at reducing carbon dioxide emissions from cars. This strategy would also help reduce addiction to imported oil.

If global warming goes unchecked, South Florida faces substantial risk of devastation by the steady rise in sea levels and intense hurricanes. While the state needs to prepare for the expected onslaught of hurricanes in the coming decades, I urge Florida to join California and the other states aggressively investing in cleaner energy. By acting now, we can have lower energy bills and less dependence on Mideast oil, while minimizing the more extreme climate risks we face later in the century.

Joseph Romm is a former acting assistant secretary of energy and author of the forthcoming book, Hell and High Water: How Global Warming Will Forever Change American Life.