The Road to Independence

Seattle Post-Intelligencer
July 07, 2006

An economic earthquake is poised to shake the globe. By preparing now for a future of scarce world oil supplies, we can build an economy with a more resilient foundation for jobs and prosperity.

As economics guru Alan Greenspan recently told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, "Even before the devastating hurricanes of last summer, world oil markets had been subject to a degree of strain not experienced for a generation. Today ... the buffer between supply and demand is much too small to absorb shutdowns of even a small part of the world's oil demand."

The American economy is like a car without shock absorbers. The next hurricane that slams into the Gulf Coast could send prices up at the pump again. But the next car bomb that successfully explodes at a major Saudi oil facility could send fuel pump prices above $5 or $6 per gallon. A doubling of oil prices from such a shock could cause a 2 percent to 5 percent slump in GDP, for one of the worst recessions since World War II.

While U.S. energy policy has seemed like a deer petrified in the headlights of oncoming calamity, leaders spanning the spectrum are moving serious proposals for greater energy self-reliance. Just as President Kennedy challenged our nation to land on the moon within a decade, citizens across the country -- trade unionists, farmers, security hawks, entrepreneurs, and state and local officials -- are by word and deed challenging our nation to implement a new Apollo Project -- to achieve clean energy independence within a decade. The farmer-led 25x25 movement is calling for agriculture to produce 25 percent of U.S. energy by 2025. Bipartisan federal legislation aims to cut oil consumption 7 million barrels by 2025.

Washington state has been a pioneer in these efforts. Just this year, Gov. Christine Gregoire united farmers, unions, environmentalists, Republicans and Democrats to sign into law a bill, sponsored by Rep. Jenea Holmquist, that sets a statewide standard to promote renewable fuels to replace some of the gasoline we import from the Middle East and other troubled regions.

There is more, however, that we in Washington state can do to help reduce oil use by a transportation system 97 percent dependent on oil. In so doing, we can help lead America toward clean energy independence that protects our economy, our environment and our security. This five-point plan could help us achieve that goal:

# We should set an oil savings goal. A California plan targets a 15 percent lower oil use in 2020 than 2000. Washington Sen. Maria Cantwell has introduced legislation to reduce U.S. oil imports 40 percent below 2025 projections. Hawaii Gov. Linda Lingle is pushing to cut state oil imports by 2020. Washington consumes roughly 3.6 billion gallons of oil per year in transportation fuels, with a typical annual growth rate of 1.7 percent for the past 25 years. State leaders should set firm goals and dates, first to halt increasing oil use and then to significantly reduce it, appointing an Oil Savings Task Force to map strategies.

# Cost-effective, off-the-shelf motor vehicle technologies could improve fuel efficiency by 60 percent in 10 years without reducing vehicle size or weight, says the Union of Concerned Scientists. State and local governments can promote better mileage by public fleet purchases, and tax and license fee incentives. Requiring replacement tires to be as efficient as new tires can improve mileage by 3 percent. Education on tire inflation could have a real impact.

At least 100,000 Washington motorists are driving flex fuel vehicles capable of running on home-grown "E85" -- 85 percent ethanol fuel -- instead of gasoline, yet there is only one retail E85 fuel pump in the entire state. State and local governments can provide incentives for station operators to install E85 pumps and make sure their own flex fuel vehicles run on E85.

# Public transportation uses half the oil per passenger mile as cars and SUVs, reports the Center for Transportation Excellence. Investing in bus and rail transit systems that provide frequent, reliable service is vital. Building compact communities provides the population base that makes frequent transit service feasible. Smart transit-oriented development could reduce oil use up to 10 percent by 2020, a California Energy Commission study shows.

# Building on our Renewable Fuels Standard, the state should invest in R&D to develop the next generation of bio-fuels -- so-called "cellulosic ethanol" based on Washington's abundant supplies of plant waste from its farms, forests and municipalities as well as specialized crops such as switchgrass. New technologies will produce cellulosic biofuels at costs competitive with gasoline.

Washington State University calculates the state annually generates 15 million dry tons in cellulose wastes. With near future technologies each million tons could displace 50 million gallons of petroleum fuels. Washington also has 14 million acres of croplands. Crops such as switchgrass could displace 200 million gallons per million acres. While only a portion of those tons and acres will be practical for fuel production, these figures indicate massive prospects. State farmlands also can grow oil crops capable of producing at least 50 million gallons of biodiesel annually, perhaps several times that much. And a substantial chunk of the $9 billion that we annually pay to oil companies will wind up in Washington farmers' wallets.

# Outcompeted by gasoline in the early days of the car, electricity is returning in the form of gasoline-electric hybrids that significantly reduce fuel use. The next stage is the plug-in hybrid charged not only by car systems but also by standard wall sockets. Because plug-ins run on electric charge longer than most people drive daily, liquid fuel use could drop as much as 85 percent. A Prius converted by the CalCars group gets more than 100 mpg of petroleum. A flex fuel plug-in car could be nearly oil free. Plug-In Partners is a national grass-roots initiative working to demonstrate to automakers a market for flex fuel plug-ins exists.

Plug-ins could make a big dent in global warming pollution. A UC Berkeley study shows 1,000 megawatts used to charge plug-in hybrids will displace 770 million gasoline gallons yearly. Since plug-ins would be charged at night during off peak hours, they would use electricity that is otherwise wasted. Plug-ins could be virtually carbon free if Washington develops its significant undeveloped renewable power and energy efficiency resources. Passage of I-937, the Clean Energy Initiative, this fall would help ensure that Washington taps its clean power potential.

A State Plug-In Hybrid Task Force could help advance demonstration projects and identify opportunities for state businesses in plug-in manufacture. Significant oil reductions can also be made by electrifying truck stops, and running port cranes and docked ships on electricity, which is being done at our ports.

Now we are called to secure our independence from politically unstable regions and oil companies with a long record of resistance to alternatives. Disruptive oil shocks are barreling down on us. We will either hang economically as individuals or join in a bold agenda to replace petroleum fuels.

Washington state has the public leadership, entrepreneurial vision and energy resources to lead this new American energy revolution. In upcoming elections citizens should ask candidates: What is your plan for dissolving the bonds of oil addiction and declaring clean energy independence?

RESOURCES

The Apollo Challenge -- New Energy, New Jobs, New Independence for America www.apollochallenge.com/

Oil Security and Energy Independence Reports Stanford Energy Modeling Forum: Oil Security www.stanford.edu/ group/EMF/projects/oilsecurity.htm

"Towards Energy Independence in 2025" rael.berkeley.edu/ei2025-report.pdf

"Winning the Oil Endgame" www.oilendgame.com/

"The New Harvest: Biofuels and Wind Power for Rural Revitalization and National Energy Security" www.climatesolutions.org/pubs/pdfs/TheNewHarvest.pdf

Apollo Alliance: New Energy for States, Cities and Campuses

www.apolloalliance.org/strategy_center/strategies_for_clean_energy/index.cfm

"Reducing Oil Use Through Energy Efficiency: Opportunities Beyond Cars and Light Trucks" www.aceee.org/press/e061pr.htm

Biofuels - General Information

Fact Sheets on Biofuels independentfuels.org/fact-sheets

Washington State CTED Bioenergy & Biofuels Information

qa.cted.wa.gov/portal/alias__cted/lang__en/tabID__887/DesktopDefault.aspx

Biofuels - Energy Balance

Science Magazine, January 2006, "Ethanol Can Contribute to Energy and Environmental Goals"

rael.berkeley.edu/EBAMM/FarrellEthanolScience012706.pdf

NRDC, February 2006, "Ethanol: Energy Well Spent" www.nrdc.org/air/transportation/ethanol/ethanol.asp

E85 Information

National Ethanol Vehicle Coalition www.e85fuel.com/index.php

Transit and transit-friendly communities

Transportation Choices Coalition of Washington www.transportationchoices.org/

Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles

National Plug-in Partners Campaign www.pluginpartners.org/

California Cars Initiative www.calcars.org/

Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency

Yes on I-937 www.yeson937.org/

Patrick Mazza is research director for Climate Solutions, www.climatesolutions.org Rich Feldman is coordinator for Apollo Alliance of Washington, www.apolloalliance.org, and executive director of the Worker Center-King County Labor Council, AFL-CIO. For more on the Apollo Challenge campaign, visit www.apollochallenge.com.